Impacts of emergency health protection measures upon air quality, traffic and public health: evidence from Oxford, UK.

Emergency responses to the COVID-19 pandemic led to major changes in travel behaviours and economic activities in 2020. Machine learning provides a reliable approach for assessing the contribution of these changes to air quality. This study investigates impacts of health protection measures upon air pollution and traffic emissions and estimates health and economic impacts arising from these changes during two national 'lockdown' periods in Oxford, UK. Air quality improvements were most marked during the first lockdown with reductions in observed NO2 concentrations of 38% (SD ± 24.0%) at roadside and 17% (SD ± 5.4%) at urban background locations. Observed changes in PM2.5, PM10 and O3 concentrations were not significant during first or second lockdown. Deweathering and detrending analyses revealed a 22% (SD ± 4.4%) reduction in roadside NO2 and 2% (SD ± 7.1%) at urban background with no significant changes in the second lockdown. Deweathered-detrended PM2.5 and O3 concentration changes were not significant, but PM10 increased in the second lockdown only. City centre traffic volume reduced by 69% and 38% in the first and second lockdown periods. Buses and passenger cars were the major contributors to NO2 emissions, with relative reductions of 56% and 77% respectively during the first lockdown, and less pronounced changes in the second lockdown. While car and bus NO2 emissions decreased during both lockdown periods, the overall contribution from buses increased relative to cars in the second lockdown. Sustained NO2 emissions reduction consistent with the first lockdown could prevent 48 lost life-years among the city population, with economic benefits of up to £2.5 million. Our findings highlight the critical importance of decoupling emissions changes from meteorological influences to avoid overestimation of lockdown impacts and indicate targeted emissions control measures will be the most effective strategy for achieving air quality and public health benefits in this setting.

Spring Festival and COVID-19 Lockdown: Disentangling PM Sources in Major Chinese Cities.

Responding to the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak, China imposed an unprecedented lockdown producing reductions in air pollutant emissions. However, the lockdown driven air pollution changes have not been fully quantified. We applied machine learning to quantify the effects of meteorology on surface air quality data in 31 major Chinese cities. The meteorologically normalized NO2, O3, and PM2.5 concentrations changed by -29.5%, +31.2%, and -7.0%, respectively, after the lockdown began. However, part of this effect was also associated with emission changes due to the Chinese Spring Festival, which led to ∼14.1% decrease in NO2, ∼6.6% increase in O3 and a mixed effect on PM2.5 in the studied cities that largely resulted from festival associated fireworks. After decoupling the weather and Spring Festival effects, changes in air quality attributable to the lockdown were much smaller: -15.4%, +24.6%, and -9.7% for NO2, O3, and PM2.5, respectively.

Potential health risks of inhaled toxic elements and risk sources during different COVID-19 lockdown stages in Linfen, China.

Levels of toxic elements in ambient PM2.5 were measured from 29 October 2019 to 30 March 2020 in Linfen, China, to assess the health risks they posed and to identify critical risk sources during different periods of the COVID-19 lockdown and haze episodes using positive matrix factorization (PMF) and a health-risk assessment model. The mean PM2.5 concentration during the study period was 145 µg/m3, and the 10 investigated toxic elements accounted for 0.31% of the PM2.5 mass. The total non-cancer risk (HI) and total cancer risk (TCR) of the selected toxic elements exceed the US EPA limits for children and adults. The HI for children was 2.3 times that for adults for all periods, which is likely due to the high inhalation rate per unit body weight for children. While the TCR for adults was 1.7 times that of children, which is mainly attributed to potential longer exposure duration for adults. The HI and TCR of the toxic elements during full lockdown were reduced by 66% and 58%, respectively, compared to their pre-lockdown levels. The HI and TCR were primarily attributable to Mn and As, respectively. Health risks during haze episodes were significantly higher than the average levels during COVID-19 lockdowns, though the HI and TCR of the selected toxic elements during full-lockdown haze episodes were 68% and 17% lower, respectively, than were the levels during pre-lockdown haze episodes. During the study period, fugitive dust and steel-related smelting were the highest contributors to HI and TCR, respectively, and decreased in these emission sources contributed the most to the lower health risks observed during the full lockdown. There, the control of these sources is critical to effectively reduce public health risks.

Haze episodes before and during the COVID-19 shutdown in Tianjin, China: Contribution of fireworks and residential burning.

Potential health benefits from improved ambient air quality during the COVID-19 shutdown have been recently reported and discussed. Despite the shutdown measures being in place, northern China still suffered severe haze episodes (HE) that are not yet fully understood, particularly how the source emissions changed. Thus, the meteorological conditions and source emissions in processing five HEs occurred in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area were investigated by analyzing a comprehensive real-time measurement dataset including air quality data, particle physics, optical properties, chemistry, aerosol lidar remote sensing, and meteorology. Three HEs recorded before the shutdown began were related to accumulated primary pollutants and secondary aerosol formation under unfavorable dispersion conditions. The common "business as usual" emissions from local primary sources in this highly polluted area exceeded the wintertime atmospheric diffusive capacity to disperse them. Thus, an intensive haze formed under these adverse meteorological conditions such as in the first HE, with coal combustion to be the predominant source. Positive responses to the shutdown measures were demonstrated by reduced contributions from traffic and dust during the final two HEs that overlapped the Spring and Lantern Festivals, respectively. Local meteorological dispersion during the Spring Festival was the poorest among the five HEs. Increased residential burning plus fireworks emissions contributed to the elevated PM2.5 with the potential of enhancing the HEs. Our results highlight that reductions from shutdown measures alone do not prevent the occurrence of HEs. To further reduce air pollution and thus improve public health, abatement strategies with an emphasis on residential burning are needed.

Abrupt but smaller than expected changes in surface air quality attributable to COVID-19 lockdowns.

The COVID-19 lockdowns led to major reductions in air pollutant emissions. Here, we quantitatively evaluate changes in ambient NO2, O3, and PM2.5 concentrations arising from these emission changes in 11 cities globally by applying a deweathering machine learning technique. Sudden decreases in deweathered NO2 concentrations and increases in O3 were observed in almost all cities. However, the decline in NO2 concentrations attributable to the lockdowns was not as large as expected, at reductions of 10 to 50%. Accordingly, O3 increased by 2 to 30% (except for London), the total gaseous oxidant (O x = NO2 + O3) showed limited change, and PM2.5 concentrations decreased in most cities studied but increased in London and Paris. Our results demonstrate the need for a sophisticated analysis to quantify air quality impacts of interventions and indicate that true air quality improvements were notably more limited than some earlier reports or observational data suggested.

Chemistry of Atmospheric Fine Particles During the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Megacity of Eastern China.

Air pollution in megacities represents one of the greatest environmental challenges. Our observed results show that the dramatic NOx decrease (77%) led to significant O3 increases (a factor of 2) during the COVID-19 lockdown in megacity Hangzhou, China. Model simulations further demonstrate large increases of daytime OH and HO2 radicals and nighttime NO3 radical, which can promote the gas-phase reaction and nocturnal multiphase chemistry. Therefore, enhanced NO3 - and SO4 2- formation was observed during the COVID-19 lockdown because of the enhanced oxidizing capacity. The PM2.5 decrease was only partially offset by enhanced aerosol formation with its reduction reaching 50%. In particular, NO3 - decreased largely by 68%. PM2.5 chemical analysis reveals that vehicular emissions mainly contributed to PM2.5 under normal conditions in Hangzhou. Whereas, stationary sources dominated the residual PM2.5 during the COVID-19 lockdown. This study provides evidence that large reductions in vehicular emissions can effectively mitigate air pollution in megacities.

Variation in Concentration and Sources of Black Carbon in a Megacity of China During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Black carbon (BC) not only warms the atmosphere but also affects human health. The nationwide lockdown due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to a major reduction in human activity during the past 30 years. Here, the concentration of BC in the urban, urban-industry, suburb, and rural areas of a megacity Hangzhou were monitored using a multiwavelength Aethalometer to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on BC emissions. The citywide BC decreased by 44% from 2.30 to 1.29 µg/m3 following the COVID-19 lockdown period. The source apportionment based on the Aethalometer model shows that vehicle emission reduction responded to BC decline in the urban area and biomass burning in rural areas around the megacity had a regional contribution of BC. We highlight that the emission controls of vehicles in urban areas and biomass burning in rural areas should be more efficient in reducing BC in the megacity Hangzhou.

Changes in source contributions to particle number concentrations after the COVID-19 outbreak: Insights from a dispersion normalized PMF.

Factor analysis models use the covariance of measured variables to identify and apportion sources. These models, particularly positive matrix factorization (PMF), have been extensively used for analyzing particle number concentrations (PNCs) datasets. However, the variation of observed PNCs and particle size distribution are driven by both the source emission rates and atmospheric dispersion as well as chemical and physical transformation processes. This variation in the observation data caused by meteorologically induced dilution reduces the ability to obtain accurate source apportionment results. To reduce the influence of dilution on quantitative source estimates, a methodology for improving the accuracy of source apportionment results by incorporating a measure of dispersion, the ventilation coefficient, into the PMF analysis (called dispersion normalized PMF, DN-PMF) was applied to a PNC dataset measured from a field campaign that includes the Spring Festival event and the start of the COVID-19 lockdown in Tianjin, China. The data also included gaseous pollutants and hourly PM2.5 compositional data. Eight factors were resolved and interpreted as municipal incinerator, traffic nucleation, secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA), traffic emissions, photonucleation, coal combustion, residential heating and festival emissions. The DN-PMF enhanced the diel patterns of photonucleation and the two traffic factors by enlarging the differences between daytime peak values and nighttime concentrations. The municipal incinerator plant, traffic emissions, and coal combustion have cleaner and more clearly defined directionalities after dispersion normalization. Thus, dispersion normalized PMF is capable of enhancing the source emission patterns. After the COVID-19 lockdown began, PNC of traffic nucleation and traffic emissions decreased by 41% and 44%, respectively, while photonucleation produced more particles likely due to the reduction in the condensation sink. The significant changes in source emissions indicate a substantially reduced traffic volume after the implement of lockdown measures.